The market has consolidated for the last day and a half. If the gasoline draws are larger than expected, we'll be off to the races again.

The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

The markets have been reacting to news on Iran, but the physical oil markets have been fairly relaxed so I'm not surprised to have seen them fall.

The difference from the last couple of years is that supply fears are driving the market.

The market doesn't need more sour crude now, it needs more oil products. For anyone who has been paying close attention to oil markets in recent months, the whole thing is a big shrug of the shoulders.

In the near term, the markets will continue to strengthen and weaken with the weather, and crude and product prices will be range-bound.

This is just drifting around. But the Nigeria situation, as the weeks wear on, is providing a firmer floor for the market.

It's just a bit of profit taking after the weekend.

Strong demand is now priced in. Barring a sustained cold snap, I can't see any fundamental reason for much more of an up-move.

It's U.S. gasoline, its Nigeria, it's the financial flows and Iran is there in the background. Do I think we're going to hit $70 at some point? Easily.